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Deep learning of aftershock patterns following large earthquakes | Nature

Deep learning of aftershock patterns following large earthquakes | Nature

we use a deep-learning approach to identify a static-stress-based criterion that forecasts aftershock locations without prior assumptions about fault orientation. We show that a neural network trained on more than 131,000 mainshock–aftershock pairs can predict the locations of aftershocks in an independent test dataset of more than 30,000 mainshock–aftershock pairs more accurately (area under curve of 0.849) than can classic Coulomb failure stress change (area under curve of 0.583). We find that the learned aftershock pattern is physically interpretable

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